To clarify: this is not a piece written as a future retrospective, this is about the world of today and the immediate future of the next 20-30 years. Will we have achieved superintelligence by then? Possibly, but unlikely, I think. A Transhumanist and technological optimist I may be, but I'm not that optimistic. Instead, I want to focus on the precursor technologies of the Singularity event, and the problems that arise from them, and possible solutions to those problems.
One thing everyone can agree on, I think, is the rapid pace at which automation is growing and becoming ever more useful. Robots of all kinds are becoming more stable and getting better at certain tasks all the time, certainly more efficient than humans in some cases. Thus, the rise of the machines is inevitable, as is their taking over from us in the workplace. It makes financial sense, after all. While the initial cost of the automatons may seem prohibitive, over their lifetime, the savings are huge. No wages to pay, no sick days or holidays, no 9-5 working hours. OK, there may be maintenance costs every now and again, and higher electric bills, but balance that against the fallibility of humans and the machine wins every time.
I'll take a wager that as you read that, you thought only of factory jobs, or any other blue-collar job. And normally, you would be right, because how can a machine ever work out finances better than a human to trade on the markets or head up a department? Too late, computer algorithms have that down pat. You'll never get a machine in the kitchen to cook, I hear you say? There are several, actually, including a whole kitchen unit that needs only to be told what recipe to use. Doctors, we'll always need them. But as we can already perform surgeries from thousands of miles away, controlling a robot, it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to cut out the human element and just program the robot to do it.
Almost any job you can think of is at risk from our silicon overlords. And it's happening.
So what does this mean for us mere fleshies? Are we done for?
Well, no. But it does mean that we will have to adapt to this scenario rapidly, morally, ethically, legally and economically. While it will take some time for full automation to come into effect, it is still a reality we need to face, beginning with money. Money makes the world go around, but if no one but a bare handful have any, then it is worthless. Imagine 2008, except the whole world went the way of the Greeks. Doesn't sound very pretty, does it?
Now imagine that robots came and took your job. All your possible jobs. Angry doesn't quite cover it, does it? No job, no money, soon leads to no house, no food. How did this happen? Why didn't the government do something?
These, and more, are questions that need to be asked, and addressed, in the next 10 years. Politicians didn't see the Internet coming, or understand what it was or its implications. Now they're scrambling in the dark trying to put the lid on something that isn't even in the box any more. And that's what we risk happening again if the robot question isn't addressed now. I haven't even begun to start asking about safety from attacks from robots or any of the hundred other issues that might arise, and already I've turned the world upside down (for who think Asimov's laws should be sufficient, think again).
As a starting point, a short - term solution would be Universal Basic Income. This provides safety net for those in need, allowing a basic way to live. It's also cost - effective, saving the taxpayer large sums of money that would otherwise be wasted in a monstrous bureaucratic social security engine. But it is only a temporary measure, currency will be made meaningless eventually.
